Here is a verbatim transcript of Devesh Kumar's exclusive nterview on CNBC-TV18.
Devesh Kumar, Managing Director, Centrum Broking, feels whatever panic or selling we see today is overdone. “This is a great time where probably one may see their portfolio dip by 5-10% if you enter today. But the returns are going to be in multiples like 200-300% over the next 24-months. One should enter this market with a longer-term view, though chances are that one will be making good returns in the short-term itself. That’s what we are advising our clients though it requires a lot of courage and a lot of extra savings to be bold in such markets.”
The set of corporates that we have chosen — irrespective of short-term problems that they face — are all positive on one–two year prospects. The current tightening may result in some slowdown in quarterly results that come out in January. In view of the macroeconomic environment and the steps that have come late but which finally came, the liquidity situation may improve. Keeping that in mind, they all feel that 2010 will be a better year. We find that the corporates present here are not as badly hit as markets fear. We have got a good set of investors here who are interested in knowing more about these companies but they are not in a hurry to put their money in the market. So we feel that this level of interest clearly indicates that people are waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market and timing — it could probably be January when all the bad news is out.
The banking sector is looking at the corporate side development very cautiously and NPA is what concerns them. That’s where they are being very careful and cautious. That is the indication we got but if everyone’s worse fears don’t come true in December, then we will find that the mood will be very different in January.
As far as flows to the investor funds are concerned, they feel that there has been some improvement and they have seen investors coming back and putting some money. But among the ones who are representing international firms, a lot of decisions will be put on hold till December, a lot of and big investments will start coming January onward. So we may see some amount of guarded investment in the market for some time but any big change in direction and mood will come only in January.
Wisdom says that whenever there is panic and when things look bad, it is the time to invest and when everything looks bullish, that’s when one has to exit. What we feel is that whatever panic or selling we see today is overdone. This is a great time where probably you may see your portfolio by 5-10% if you enter today. But the returns are going to in multiples like 200-300% over the next 24-months. One should enter this market with a longer-term view — though chances are that one will be making good returns in the short term itself. That’s what we are advising our clients though it requires a lot of courage and a lot of extra savings to be bold in such markets.
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