Your Ad Here

Monday, August 17, 2009

Strategies To Trade On Correction : Experts view

Jyoti Vaswani, Assistant Director-Fund Management, Aviva Life, too sees a correction of about 10-15%. "Along with the China factor, you have certain domestic concerns like monsoons which are deficient. We have fiscal deficit concerns and also have inflation which could pop up soon. In the short-term, these ups and downs are very much a part of it. Therefore, one should really not get carried away, take a long-term view and stay invested."

If the Chinese situation continues or deteriorates further, she feels there could be a huge increase of risk aversion globally and that would impact India in the short term. "But over the long-term, I don’t see too much of a risk as far as India is concerned."
Ambareesh Baliga of Karvy Stock Broking says it will be difficult for the Nifty to bounce back in 3-4 sessions. "Looking at the weak global markets and the way US will open today, we are in for a crack tomorrow. Tomorrow’s crack will take it much below the last time support levels of 4,360. Once it breaks that, I suppose all hell will break loose. The Nifty will finally head towards 4100 levels."

Rahul Mohindar of viratechindia.com too sees the markets heading a little lower in the short-term. “The Nifty may drift to 4,250-4,300 levels.”

Stocks/sector to trade now:

Baliga advises investors to buy in a staggered fashion and keep cash for lower levels as one does not know which levels the markets could go to. “I would be using all downsides to buy and get fully invested. We are bullish on long-term. We see this problem window lasting for the next 2-3 months by which time one should get fully invested."
Seconding Baliga, Vaswani says each dip may still be used for accumulation of stocks.

On autos:

Mohindar sees buying emerge in auto stocks at lower levels. He feels it will be safer to buy Tata Motors above Rs 455.
However, Vaswani is cautious on the auto sector. "The discomfort from auto arises from two factors. The growth last year has largely been driven by the rural segment. Given that monsoons are deficient, one needs to see how the growth pans out in this segment. Autos are also interest rate sensitives. So, one has to watch out, given that there are inflationary expectations, given that government borrowing is on the higher side and may rise further because of the deficient monsoons. Also, interest rates are said to harden. Given this background, we remain cautious on the auto segment."
Baliga says investors can wait for the stock to correct further in September-October to buy. "Looking at the way the monsoons have panned out, I suppose October-November-December could have some issues for these auto numbers."

On midcap IT, pharma:

According to Mohindar, long only investors can park their money in pharma, midcap IT.
Commenting on the road ahead for midcap IT, he says, "I don’t think these are going to be heading down in a serious fashion at least from a short- to medium-term perspective. A stock like Aptech or NIIT Technologies still has visibility from a short-term trader’s point of view. Getting a good 10-15% rally even from these levels in a stock like Rolta or Aptech certainly looks possible. If you are already into these counters, one should stay and probably could look at even adding into these stocks on declines."
Vaswani too does not share Mohindar’s optimism on midcap IT. "The valuations for IT as a whole, at this juncture, are certainly not cheap. Given that the US economy is stabilizing, we haven’t seen any signs of recovery. Given that scenario, we are not too comfortable with valuations at which the IT companies are trading. We are adopting a cautious stance and would re-look at it once the prices correct."
Baliga is bullish on Fortis Healthcare from the pharma space. "It does not have too much downside from here. The maximum downside for that is Rs 90. We have picked up something at around Rs 100-125 levels. If it comes down with the market to Rs 90 levels, I will buy more."

On the metals space:

Despite the huge cut in metals stocks today, Mohindar feels one can hold on this sector.
However, Baliga sees metals softening for the next couple of weeks. "Stocks like Hindalco, Sterlite, Tata Steel, or SAIL will seek much lower levels. If you notice in the past couple of months they had actually outperformed the markets, so even on the way down they would outperform. These stocks can actually fall at least about 15-18% from the current levels."
Vaswani too is cautious on the metals space given what’s going on in China. "Prices have run up significantly. This has largely happened because of purchases happening on the Chinese side. While China is spending a lot on infrastructure, we still need to see how long they can sustain it, given that the banking credit has already slowed down a little bit. We need to see how it shapes up because the sustenance of this will depend on the global recovery as well. All said and done, China is still highly dependent on exports in the US. We don’t see huge improvement in the US as of now. Given that scenario, how long would this continue needs to be watched."

On banking stocks:

Vaswani is more comfortable buying stocks from the banking sector than playing auto stocks. "If the economic growth really happens, then one can see an increase in credit offtake given that most companies or the troubled sectors have been able to raise equity in the last couple of months. As money is available today, these companies are deleveraging and therefore the risks of non-performing assets also seem to have reduced for the banking sector. We would see improvements in net interest margins going forward, which has been a cause of concern in the last quarter. But we should see that improvement coming through in the next few quarters."

On infrastructure stocks:

Buying on dips is how Vaswani is playing the infrastructure space. But he is cautious on real estate. "I think infrastructure is a long-term story and that is something which we are very bullish on. If you are investing in India today, you are not investing from a short-term point of view. Over the next 5-10 years, India continues to remain a growth story and that’s going to be led by the infrastructure segment."
source: MC

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Disclaimer

Information presented on this site is a guide only. It may not necessarily be correct and is not intended to be taken as financial advice nor has it been prepared with regard to the individual investment needs and objectives or financial situation of any particular person. The blogs/posts are an information service only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of such information, judgment and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes. Stock quotes are believed to be accurate and correctly dated, but Stockxnews does not warrant or guarantee their accuracy or date.
 
Design by SXN. Converted To Blogger Template By SXN .