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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

US Recession May End By Early Next Year: BlackRock

Robert Doll, Vice Chairman and Global CIO of Equities, BlackRock, said that the US economy was perhaps in the process of bottoming out. The US recession may end by early next year, he added.

On the global front, Doll said the markets could correct 5-10% from the current levels and that he saw a longer correction if growth ahead did not happen as expected.


the underlying fundamentals for the economy would continue to improve and added that investors should buy on corrections.


Robert Doll said,


“A 5% to 10% correction can happen at any point in time and I think that a 950 no on the S&P is back to where we were just a few weeks ago. And I think in the long run that will all look just a bit squiggle on the chart. We will have a longer correction at some point when it looks like maybe growth isn’t coming back as fast as people thought. We get into that top part of that square root and will pullback at some point but I think the overall trend remains to the constructive side. Watch inventory levels, watch confidence. Watch what happens in the Chinese markets. It’s had a bit of a trouble, it was the first one to come out, maybe the first one to have a correction. These are the signs I think to keep your eye on.”


On Bottoming process he said:


I think we are in the process of ending here. Look it doesn’t end in every part of the economy on a given day. its a process, just like there was a bottoming process for the equity markets, I think there is a bottoming process for the economy and when the national bureau of economic research gets around to it sometime probably early next year, they will tell us that recession ended maybe as we are speaking.


On recovery he said:


A lot of people just don’t believe it. There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines, while some of it has surely come into the rally, I think there is a lot of skepticism and that’s normal in the early stages. People just don’t believe this is a recovery.


We have come a long way in a short period of time and to get to your question, and a pullback of notable magnitude after 50 % plus run can happen at any point of time. But the underlying fundamentals continue to improve for the eco, earnings. Valuations are not extended; policy remains a very common day event to repeat. People have a lot of cash on the sidelines. So any kind of pullback we think will be met with some buying.


source: MC

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