India's monsoons that have played truant may be set to dent economic growth by more than what the Finance Minster has admitted.
Montek Singh Aluwhalia who heads the Planning Commission isn't holding out much hope and says a 6 per cent growth in GDP looks like a stretch.
Deficient monsoon is turning the heat both on the economy as well as the government.
Being the Prime Minister's trusted lieutenant and Planning Commission deputy chairman, Ahluwalia feels if such a growth is achieved it will be a remarkable feat.
"I was always saying it will be between 6.5-7 per cent. A vast majority of the developing countries and industrialised countries will be delightful to show 6 per cent growth."
Economists also differ and are skeptical of the government's ambitious growth target with the current trade and agriculture output data is anything to go by.
Ashok Desai, economist of Corporate Catalyst (India), said, "My expectation is over the current fiscal of 2009-10. GDP growth will be 5 per cent or less. I see that foreign trade has collapsed, imports are down by 30 per cent and exports are down by 30 per cent. This is bound to affect GDP growth."
Meanwhile, Mridul Saggar, chief economist of Kotak Securities Limited, said, "My own estimate is 5 per cent, with just half percentage point more or less, in terms of growth this fiscal. That is because of uncertainty about monsoon is still there. I expect a much larger drop in agriculture."
However, it is difficult to say whether the government is being too optimistic about the country's growth or is it just its dependence on a wishfully robust growth in the services and manufacturing sectors that could boost growth.
source: NDTVPROFIT
Montek Singh Aluwhalia who heads the Planning Commission isn't holding out much hope and says a 6 per cent growth in GDP looks like a stretch.
Deficient monsoon is turning the heat both on the economy as well as the government.
Being the Prime Minister's trusted lieutenant and Planning Commission deputy chairman, Ahluwalia feels if such a growth is achieved it will be a remarkable feat.
"I was always saying it will be between 6.5-7 per cent. A vast majority of the developing countries and industrialised countries will be delightful to show 6 per cent growth."
Economists also differ and are skeptical of the government's ambitious growth target with the current trade and agriculture output data is anything to go by.
Ashok Desai, economist of Corporate Catalyst (India), said, "My expectation is over the current fiscal of 2009-10. GDP growth will be 5 per cent or less. I see that foreign trade has collapsed, imports are down by 30 per cent and exports are down by 30 per cent. This is bound to affect GDP growth."
Meanwhile, Mridul Saggar, chief economist of Kotak Securities Limited, said, "My own estimate is 5 per cent, with just half percentage point more or less, in terms of growth this fiscal. That is because of uncertainty about monsoon is still there. I expect a much larger drop in agriculture."
However, it is difficult to say whether the government is being too optimistic about the country's growth or is it just its dependence on a wishfully robust growth in the services and manufacturing sectors that could boost growth.
source: NDTVPROFIT
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