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Sunday, September 27, 2009

Go short on IFCI futures

The overall market-wide rollover stood higher at 84 per cent while the open interest position at the start of the October series is the highest since January 2008.

Several individual stock futures such as Kingfisher Airlines, Bajaj Hindustan, Balrampur Chini, Cairn India, Essar Oil, Dish TV, GTL Infra and UltraTech Cement saw higher rollovers.

IFCI futures (56.7)

This is one of the momentum counters that has been very active in recent times.

The outlook for IFCI (market lot 7880) appears negative.

It faces a strong resistance at 59 and has support at 50, though in between 53.5 could also act as a minor support zone.

It appears the stock may be headed for the support level of Rs 50 in the near-term.

F&O pointers

Among the options, IFCI 60 and 65 calls and 55 put were the most active.

Open interest for calls stood higher at 56.02 lakh shares and 26.24 lakh shares respectively while put saw an accumulation of 20.05 lakh shares.

This clearly indicates the strong emergence of call writers, suggesting that the stock may have limited upside.

Trading strategies

Consider going short on IFCI futures, keeping the stop-loss at 58.75 (underlying), if it opens flat on Tuesday. Traders can book profit at 53 and 50 levels.

Consider buying IFCI 55 put which is trading at a premium of Rs 2.5. (Don’t buy if the premium shoots above Rs 3.5).

Unitech (110)

The near-term outlook for the stock is neutral. Unitech (market lot 4500) is likely to move in a range of 115-95 in the short-term. A break on either of the side could swing the stock wildly in that direction in the medium-term.

Even at the start of the fresh series, the futures shed open interest. Among the options, 110 and 115 calls and 110 puts were active.

Strategy

Traders could consider short straddle on Unitech. This can be initiated by selling110-strikes of call and put; they closed at around Rs 6.5 each.

While the maximum profit is premium collected, the loss could be unlimited. This strategy is valid for a maximum of two days only and for high-risk traders as it involves a higher margin outgo.


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