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Monday, September 14, 2009

Market On Cusp Of Multi-Year Bull Run: Ramesh Damani


Ramesh Damani has generally been bullish but was very sceptical and correctly so for throughout 2008.


The way the market bounced back from its lows showed the market was never in bear market terrain. “A bear market by definition cannot snap back on a V-shaped recovery, the fact that the market has snapped back suggests that we were in a very severe correction of a bull market.


This bull market in terms of how well it bounced back from lows is suggesting that there is something going on that is extraordinary in India. We are in the process of taking India from a trillion-dollar economy to not a 2-trillion dollar or a 3-trillion dollar economy but something far greater,” Damani said. “Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and the profound investment implications for that over investment horizons.

There is an old saying that if the bird talks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is a duck and I think all the readings that I see in the market sound bullish. I mean the market is climbing its proverbial wall of worry. You know the bear markets don’t correct so much. The screen tells you a completely bullish story. There has been a gradual increase, people are being able to trade and the volumes take place, so I think the intellectual fit that I am trying to describe myself, it would be correct to say that I was very bearish when the markets were going down. Perhaps this was not a bull or a bear market. This was perhaps a very severe correction in an ongoing bull market that we experienced. It was maybe a 70% correction but a bear market by definition cannot snap back on a V-shaped recovery, the fact that the market has snapped back suggests that we were in a very severe correction of a bull market.

S:MC

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